如果問聰明物件往何處尋找？上窮碧落出於九天，下黃泉入於九地，這麼『九天九地』的追求！善也！非善之善者也？！為什麼呢？？因著『九』『六』之辨。想那《易經》唯獨『乾』『坤』兩卦有用『九』用『六』之文。有人講︰陽『極』曰『九』，陰『極』曰『六』。天地數『極』，恐將不在，故誡之以︰

用九：見群龍無首，吉。

用六：利永貞。

誰知《孫子兵法》中的『九』『六』之數︰

『軍形』講『九天九地』，『地形』篇說『六』，『九地』篇談用『兵』。

，竟惹出了『武功』裡的『九』『六』之辯︰

九陽神功、九陰真經、六陰真經、六脈神劍 ………

，到底哪一個是絕世武功的耶？？！！

此一番分解是因當今萬教所宣稱的『 IOT 』眾多，幾乎各個都言明『 SMART 』。作者不想陷入︰

這不是『肯德雞』。

的迷思，因此寫在前頭表白清楚，凡有所選，不過『之一』而已，絕非『唯一』，也無法稱霸武林。

─── 《【鼎革‧革鼎】︰ RASPBIAN STRETCH 《三‧庚》》

『竭澤而漁』可謂『智』耶？不經『滄海桑田』不知『滄桑』乎？？所以誡之以用『九』用『六』！莫要『反應加速』，悔之晚矣！！

Effects of global warming

The effects of global warming are the environmental and social changes caused (directly or indirectly) by human emissions of greenhouse gases. There is a scientific consensus that climate change is occurring, and that human activities are the primary driver.^[1] Many impacts of climate change have already been observed, including glacier retreat,^[2] changes in the timing of seasonal events^[2] (e.g., earlier flowering of plants),^[3] and changes in agricultural productivity.^[2] Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to some of the observed changes, including sea level rise, changes in climate extremes, declines in Arctic sea ice extent and glacier retreat.^[4]

Future effects of climate change will vary depending on climate change policies^[5] and social development.^[6] The two main policies to address climate change are reducing human greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation) and adapting to the impacts of climate change.^[7] Geoengineering is another policy option.^[7]

Near-term climate change policies could significantly affect long-term climate change impacts.^[5]^[8] Stringent mitigation policies might be able to limit global warming (in 2100) to around 2 °C or below, relative to pre-industrial levels.^[9] Without mitigation, increased energy demand and extensive use of fossil fuels^[10] might lead to global warming of around 4 °C.^[11]^[12] Higher magnitudes of global warming would be more difficult to adapt to,^[13] and would increase the risk of negative impacts.^[14]

A summary of climate change impacts

Projected global warming in 2100 for a range of emission scenarios

Definitions

In this article, “climate change” means a change in climate that persists over a sustained period of time.^[15]^[16] The World Meteorological Organization defines this time period as 30 years.^[15] Examples of climate change include increases in global surface temperature (global warming), changes in rainfall patterns, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events. Changes in climate may be due to natural causes, e.g., changes in the sun‘s output, or due to human activities, e.g., changing the composition of the atmosphere.^[17] Any human-induced changes in climate will occur against a background of natural climatic variations^[17] and of variations in human activity such as population growth on shores or in arid areas which increase or decrease climate vulnerability.^[18]

Also, the term “anthropogenic forcing” refers to the influence exerted on a habitat or chemical environment by humans, as opposed to a natural process.^[19]

“Detection” is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. “Attribution” of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence.^[20] Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.^[21]

今日不是科技昌明、民智已開之時嗎？！幹嘛說此『井蛙夏蟲』的話勒！？

莊子‧外篇
《秋水》

秋水時至，百川灌河，涇流之大，兩涘渚崖之間，不辯牛馬。於是焉河伯欣然自喜，以天下之美為盡在己。順流而東行，至於北海，東面而視，不見水端，於是焉河伯始旋其面目，望洋向若而歎，曰：「野語有之曰『聞道百，以為莫己若』者，我之謂也。且夫我嘗聞少仲尼之聞而輕伯夷之義者，始吾弗信，今我睹子之難窮也，吾非至於子之門則殆矣，吾長見笑於大方之家。」

北海若曰：「井蛙不可以語於海者，拘於虛也；夏蟲不可以語於冰者，篤於時也；曲士不可以語於道者，束於教也。今爾出於崖涘，觀於大海，乃知爾醜，爾將可與語大理矣。天下之水，莫大於海，萬川歸之，不知何時止而不盈；尾閭泄之，不知何時已而不虛；春秋不變，水旱不知。此其過江河之流，不可為量數。而吾未嘗以此自多者，自以比形於天地而受氣於陰陽，吾在天地之間，猶小石小木之在大山也，方存乎見少，又奚以自多！計四海之在天地之間也，不似礨空之在大澤乎？計中國之在海內，不似稊米之在大倉乎？號物之數謂之萬，人處一焉；人卒九州，穀食之所生，舟車之所通，人處一焉。此其比萬物也，不似豪末之在於馬體乎？五帝之所連，三王之所爭，仁人之所憂，任士之所勞，盡此矣。伯夷辭之以為名，仲尼語之以為博，此其自多也，不似爾向之自多於水乎？」

……

公孫龍問於魏牟曰：「龍少學先生之道，長而明仁義之行，合同異，雜堅白，然不然，可不可，困百家之知，窮眾口之辯，吾自以為至達已。今吾聞莊子之言，汒焉異之，不知論之不及與，知之弗若與？今吾無所開吾喙，敢問其方。」

公子牟隱机太息，仰天而笑曰：「子獨不聞夫埳井之鼃乎？謂東海之鱉曰：『吾樂與！出跳梁乎井幹之上，入休乎缺甃之崖，赴水則接腋持頤，蹶泥則沒足滅跗，還虷蟹與科斗，莫吾能若也。且夫擅一壑之水，而跨跱埳井之樂，此亦至矣，夫子奚不時來入觀乎？』東海之鱉左足未入，而右膝已縶矣。於是逡巡而卻，告之海曰：『夫千里之遠，不足以舉其大；千仞之高，不足以極其深。禹之時，十年九潦，而水弗為加益；湯之時，八年七旱，而崖不為加損。夫不為頃久推移，不以多少進退者，此亦東海之大樂也。』於是埳井之鼃聞之，適適然驚，規規然自失也。且夫知不知是非之竟，而猶欲觀於莊子之言，是猶使蚊負山，商蚷馳河也，必不勝任矣。且夫知不知論極妙之言，而自適一時之利者，是非埳井之鼃與？且彼方跐黃泉而登大皇，無南無北，奭然四解，淪於不測；無東無西，始於玄冥，反於大通。子乃規規然而求之以察，索之以辯，是直用管窺天，用錐指地也，不亦小乎！子往矣！且子獨不聞壽陵餘子之學行於邯鄲與？未得國能，又失其故行矣，直匍匐而歸耳。今子不去，將忘子之故，失子之業。」

公孫龍口呿而不合，舌舉而不下，乃逸而走。

……

惠子相梁，莊子往見之。或謂惠子曰：「莊子來，欲代子相。」於是惠子恐，搜於國中三日三夜。莊子往見之，曰：「南方有鳥，其名為鵷鶵，子知之乎？夫鵷鶵發於南海而飛於北海，非梧桐不止，非練實不食，非醴泉不飲。於是鴟得腐鼠，鵷鶵過之，仰而視之曰：『嚇！』今子欲以子之梁國而嚇我邪？」

───

『秋水』雖盛，卻是不能不見水端。邯鄲學步，恐怕未得國能，又失其故行矣。或許杜甫深解『秋水』文字，寄語

《天末懷李白》

涼風起天末，君子意如何。
鴻雁幾時到，江湖秋水多。
文章憎命達，魑魅喜人過。
應共冤魂語，投詩贈汨羅。

耶？？！！設若國失其語，豈能思接千載乎！！？？

─── 摘自《W!O+ 的《小伶鼬工坊演義》︰神經網絡【轉折點】六》

只因『你可以！為什麼我不可以？』，世間事難免爭端？☻

就像『事過境遷』，調雖同

虞美人

詞牌名亦為變體詩。亦稱《玉壺冰》、《憶柳曲》、《虞美人令》、《一江春水》。

雙調五十六字，前後闋各兩仄韻、兩平韻，平仄換韻，每句不同韻，方式是「甲乙丙丁」。

詞牌格式
註：平表示平聲，仄表示仄聲，仄表示本仄可平，平表示本平可仄，粗體表示韻腳。

平平仄仄平平仄，仄仄平平仄。平平仄仄仄平平，仄仄平平仄仄仄平平。

李煜

春花秋月何時了，往事知多少。小樓昨夜又東風，故國不堪回首月明中。
雕欄玉砌應猶在，只是朱顏改。問君能有幾多愁，恰似一江春水向東流。

韻已改

蘇軾

湖山信是東南美，一望彌千里。使君能得幾回來，便使尊前醉倒且徘徊。
沙河塘裡燈初上，水調誰家唱。夜闌風靜欲歸時，惟有一江明月碧琉璃。

人也不同的呦！☺

憶昨日…

真相各有所圖？？！！事實議論紛紛！！？？

Global warming

Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s climate system and its related effects.^[2]^[3] Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming.^[4]^[5]^[6] Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into the oceans. The rest has melted ice and warmed the continents and atmosphere.^[7]^[a] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over tens to thousands of years.^[8]

Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014, that “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” ^[9] Human activities have led to carbon dioxide concentrations above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.^[10] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario.^[11] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations^[12]^[b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.^[14]

Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe.^[15]^[16] Anticipated effects include warming global temperature, rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.^[17] Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall;^[18] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels.^[19]^[20] Because the climate system has a large “inertia” and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time, many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries, but will persist for tens of thousands of years.^[21]

Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),^[22] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.^[23] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required^[24] and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels, with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).^[26]

Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing. A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54% consider it “a very serious problem”. There are significant regional differences, with Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO₂ emissions) among the least concerned.^[27]

如人飲水者耶☆

Climate

Summary

The goal of this project is to provide climate data and analysis in computable form (in terms of IPython Notebooks). Part of our goal is to reproduce graphs and results from literature. Ultimately we would like to start from the raw data (e.g. from temperature stations, satellites, ice cores and other measurements) and provide the analysis in a notebook, so that anyone can easily rerun it and see exactly how the final results and graphs were obtained from original data.

Preview the IPython Notebooks

If you just want to see the notebooks, the best way is to preview them with the links below. When you’re ready to develop or run the code yourself, pull the source for this GitHub repository and execute the notebooks on your own machine.

Motivation

The motivation for this work is the following:

Reproduce graphs and results from literature.
Provide notebooks that anyone can easily rerun to reproduce all our results exactly (including all the graphs).
Provide a “pipeline”, that takes raw data and calculates final results, so that anyone can easily see what exact analysis was done.
Let the data speak for itself, we try hard not to “jump to conclusions” (or have “leaps of faith”), that does not strictly (scientifically) follow from the data.
Following Feynman’s “never trust the experts“, we want anybody to form his or her opinion about the issue, and this project might help by doing the hard work (of getting the data, understanging it, analysing it and calculating results/graphs), that one has to do anyway in order to understand the issues. By the nature of the process, the analysis can be wrong, but by making all the analysis public in a computable form, it can be discussed, improved or dismissed.
In particular (as implied by the previous points), we try to strictly only include analysis that is scientifically agreed upon and undisputed, or if that is not possible, to provide all possible weaknesses of the given approach.

Please send us ideas for improvements (for example you can open a GitHub issue or send us an email) or send a GitHub pull request (even better :).

License

All files (notebooks, Python code) are licensed under MIT license, see the LICENSE for more information. The data directory contains files that were downloaded from various sources and they are covered by their own respective licenses.

─── 摘自《時間序列︰全球暖化阻止的了？》

判斷當下，尚須己力親為◎